Fooled by Randomness
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Fooled by Randomness (English, Paperback, Taleb Nassim Nicholas)

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Fooled by Randomness  (English, Paperback, Taleb Nassim Nicholas)

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401 Ratings & 31 Reviews
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    Highlights
    • Language: English
    • Binding: Paperback
    • Publisher: Penguin Books Ltd
    • Genre: Business & Economics
    • ISBN: 9780141031484, 9780141031484
    • Pages: 368
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  • Description

    Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role Of Chance In The Markets And In Life explains in detail the theory of luck, our popular conception regarding luck and its applications in everyday life.

    Summary Of The Book

    Our lives and specifically the market are so full of random aspects and complex structures. Understanding the behaviour of markets and attributing specific reasons to its behaviour is totally impossible and sometimes a useless task. As the title explains, Taleb’s theory explains how all of us get fooled easily by randomness. Taleb goes on to elaborate how we misconstrue luck and skill. Wherever true luck plays a role, we assume it to be the work of individual skill. Most impressive situations in life are only due to luck, claims Taleb. He uses the theory of black swans (rare events) to propound his idea and says that black swans cannot be predicted.

    Taleb elucidates his theory through some popular examples using people like the baseball expert Yogi Berra, the philosopher Karl Popper, the ancient wise man Solon, the financier George Soros and the Greek voyager Odysseus. Most of all, journalists and traders fall for the randomness as well. In addition to real-life examples, Taleb also brings in the case of the fictitious hero Nero, who is smart enough to understand the play of randomness in his professional life, but is superstitiously foolish.

    Taleb also constructs an invincible, nameless fool who seems to be at the right place at the right time. The fool has a steady string of followers who are ready to do anything for their Guru. But, the fool’s actions cannot be imitated. His success is one obtained by chance.

    The most unexpected things will happen for sure. But, we become creatures of routine that we fail to identify it when it happens. Moreover, detecting risks and accepting them is done only by the emotional part of the brain. If we understand probability, then we can perceive the role of luck in everyday situations. The trick lies in recognizing it. Taleb says we must be aware of the trap that luck sets for us.

    How do we distinguish a lucky poseur from a far-sighted visionary? How do we read an incident? How do we decide whether it is luck or talent that made the person successful?

    Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role Of Chance In The Markets And In Life received wide recognition. Fortune named it as one of the smartest books of all time and the Financial Times termed it as the Book of the Year.

    About Nassim Nicholas Taleb

    Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an essayist, statistician and best-selling author.

    He is also the author of The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms and Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder.

    Taleb was born in 1960 in Amioun, Lebanon. He graduated from the University of Paris with a Bachelor’s degree in Science and also holds a Master’s degree from the same university. He also has an MBA and Ph.D from Wharton School and the University of Paris respectively. Taleb has taught at London Business School, New York University and presently teaches at Oxford University and the Polytechnic Institute of New York University.

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    Specifications
    Book Details
    Imprint
    • Penguin Books Ltd
    Dimensions
    Width
    • 21 mm
    Height
    • 198 mm
    Length
    • 129 mm
    Weight
    • 274 gr
    Ratings & Reviews
    4.3
    401 Ratings &
    31 Reviews
    • 5
    • 4
    • 3
    • 2
    • 1
    • 236
    • 101
    • 41
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    5

    Fooled by Randomness

    Ranked amongst 'the smartest books' by Fortune!

    I bought it because my Finance Professor at the B.School recommended it and I thank him for that.

    Taleb brilliantly proposes and proves that what we term as 'analysis' in the context of the markets is only 'play of chance for a non repeatable situation' and that 99% chance of success IS NOT EQUAL TO 100%,the decisions taken on this information weigh very lightly the possible consequences of that doomed 1%,one Black swan is sufficient to turn a...
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    Dr Mayank Bakshi Saraswat

    Certified Buyer

    Apr, 2012

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    5

    Simply Beautiful!

    Being an ardent devotee of 'randomness' I simply found this book to be a beautiful conversation on randomness. A difficult subject explained in such a simple manner. Anyone who cares to get to the core of the book would be greatly helped to master decision making in the face of uncertainty.

    The author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb skillfully combines dialectic thinking and Bayesian probability to help readers discover the flaws in commonsense thinking, set beliefs and to discover things through th...
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    Dibyendu De

    Certified Buyer

    Oct, 2012

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    5

    Great book

    This book is a classic read, the context is around how we keep deriving patterns from random events to build a correlation where none exists. The knowledge of maths will help in easier understanding of the various examples cited in the book. I have become particularly fond of the author's views after reading this book, and he certainly is an authority on subject of probability/ stochastic processes.
    Go read it, not for some understanding of a particular subject, but, to gain some very interes...
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    Vaibhav Bansal

    Jan, 2016

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    4

    Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

    I learned about this book from the cover blurb of the author's other title the follow-up book, the Black Swan. In fact I was attracted to the title "Fooled by randomness" which I mistook to pre-guess what the author was trying to establish-the deceptive reality for randomness itself. For, personally, I am a determinist and I pick and choose my reading in keeping with this inclination. But the tone and tenor of the book turned out to be quite the contrary. I had read long back an essay in the ...
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    MAHADEVA SARMA

    Certified Buyer, Bangalore

    Jun, 2015

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    5

    An "Off-track" book

    A great book to be read by anyone who has any interest in the world business. This book implicitly rejects the idea of One Creator and explicitly explains that it's all luck and randomness of events and not some higher intellect. This book also rejects the idea that Great Men have become Great by doing some thing very different/great. It's just that few things have clicked for them and they have become successful. It's "Off-track". Such books are written once in decades.
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    Mohit S

    Certified Buyer

    Nov, 2013

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    3

    Towards the middle and end of the book I thought like getting fooled by the writings.

    Bought with great expectations due to the brand and publicity of the author.

    So the Book is all about justifying the authors view on randomness in life, being aware and knowing about the substantial percentage of noise embedded in any experimental and knowledgeable data.
    As long as the author strikes to the theme of these idea, the pages were interesting. Certain view on the happiness and pang of life by letting oneself to over-judge and over-examine the events on a minuscule time frame are...
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    Flipkart Customer

    Certified Buyer, Mumbai

    Oct, 2013

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    3

    Understanding Randomness

    There are Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics. This is a very famous line known to most people practicing statistics. This book tries to explain how to see the truth from the statistics galore we see everyday in newspapers and other public media. This gives the essence of how ignoring simple facts can lead to completely unintended conclusions when it comes to statistics. This is just one part of the book

    The most important part is explaining how luck plays major roles in most important phases of ...
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    Dileep

    Certified Buyer

    Apr, 2013

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    4

    Too shrewd ?

    Did any of you have felt that author was way too shrewd in calling all other fools in almost every chapter ?
    Also he is very proud of his intelligence and the fact he know is a Mathematician .

    Anyways a brilliant book on probability and our misunderstandings with it. Liked the observation that we humans are way too flawed , we find patterns out of nothing ! Finding elephants in clouds !
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    Anirudh Gargi

    Nov, 2012

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    2

    Not good

    Not commenting on the content of the book.

    the paper is extremely delicate. this is a paperback version, but I was hoping for a better paper quality. you can almost see what's written on other side of the page..
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    Me Contact

    Certified Buyer, Gurugram

    Oct, 2018

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    1

    Nice book, unnecessarily ellongated

    Nice book, would have been better if crisp. The author stretches on and on. More illustrations would have been better. Also no mathematical and scientific princilples included to prove the point.
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    jitesh dixit

    Certified Buyer

    Oct, 2013

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    All 31 reviews
    Questions and Answers
    Q:Is it novel based
    A:No...it's based on personal experience of the writer. Various chapters can be read independently as well.
    Abhishek Bisen
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    Q:Is this the 2nd, updated edition?
    A:Yes
    Anonymous
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    Q:how many pages this book contains
    A:316 pages, excluding xxxviii pages of Preface and 8 pages of prologue.
    Anonymous
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